Το παρακατω αρθρο (στα αγγλικα δυστυχως) δημοσιευτηκε χθες στην Wall Street Journal Europe....τα πραγματα δεν δειχνουν να πηγαινουν τοσο καλα για την πλειονοτητα των Ευρωπαιων κατασκευαστων...

Survivor: European Auto Edition
Some car makers probably won't outlive the recession.
By NEIL WINTON From today's Wall Street Journal Europe.

Geneva

Some European auto makers may not survive the current economic crisis. When the dust settles after this particularly nasty and prolonged recession, the European car industry will look different -- and smaller, says Ralf Landmann, automotive partner with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Frankfurt.

Randy Jones'In Europe, there will be one national champion in France, one in Italy, one volume manufacturer in Germany [Volkswagen] plus Ford Europe, and two cooperating premium manufacturers -- Mercedes and BMW,' said Mr. Landmann in an interview at this week's Geneva Car Show.

If he's right, that would mean either Peugeot-Citroën or Renault in France for the chop, and goodbye as well to General Motors' Opel, Vauxhall and Swedish brand Saab. It doesn't bode well either for the other Swedish maker, Volvo, whose owner, Ford, has been looking for a buyer. Nor for other marginal players like Indian-owned Jaguar Land Rover, based in Britain. Market leader VW of Germany, now controlled by Porsche, looks safe, as does VW's Skoda brand. VW's loss-making SEAT might be getting nervous. And even Mercedes and BMW have talked on the record about combining much of their research and development and engineering, based on the idea that car buyers are not concerned with commonalties under the hood.

If anyone doubts the depth of the crisis in the European automotive business, pay attention to GM Europe President Carl-Peter Forster's comments at the show Tuesday. He believes that if GM Europe, with its Opel, Vauxhall and Saab subsidiaries, goes under, the resulting cost in jobs across Europe will be upward of 300,000.

Mr. Forster wants a financial bailout, and he wants it now. He has asked German and other European governments for a total of €3.3 billion to tide it over during its liquidity crisis, in return for ceding an equity stake. Governments are discussing it but don't seem eager to hand out the cash. Peugeot-Citroën and Renault of France are already sharing €6 billion in soft loans from their government. Other manufacturers wonder if they qualify for some kind of bailout, too.

The European automotive industry employs 2.2 million people directly and another 10 million in related industries and services. The sector also is the largest private R&D investor in Europe. Automotive manufacturers and suppliers have a combined turnover of around €700 billion, while the retail and repairs sector comprises another 350,000 small and medium-size enterprises with a turnover of €520 billion.

European car sales across the board have dived about 30% so far this year, but even this distressed level camouflages much more actual pain. Sales have often been artificially induced by government incentive schemes in Germany, France and Italy to persuade buyers to part with their 10-year-old clunkers. German buyers can, for the time being, bill their government for up to €2,500 toward the cost of a new or up to one-year-old car. The assumption is that a newer car is also greener. Car manufacturers have also been offering huge discounts to move the metal and keep production lines running.

According to Peter Schmidt, editor of the pan-European fortnightly newsletter Automotive Industry Data, actual production in factories around the world reveals an even more alarming crisis.

'January's global car production is running at less than half of last year's level and is yet another clue that this is certainly no ordinary recession,' Mr. Schmidt said. 'Likewise, today's genuine consumer demand for new cars is running at half of last year's level at best. If that same trend continues through this year's second and third quarter, things will start to look extremely ugly.' The figures mask a disturbing reality.

'Today's true underlying demand for new cars is probably just a fraction of accustomed normal historical levels,' Mr. Schmidt said. 'Certainly there must be few people in the real world worrying about their employment prospects who would want to buy a car now.'

Last weekend, EU leaders pushed aside industry pleas for a pan-European, €40 billion fund for assistance, saying any help should come from national governments. But industry experts say financial aid isn't the only way for governments to give the manufacturers temporary relief. Some want the EU to postpone new rules forcing car makers to produce more fuel-efficient machines by 2015, and to delay new plans to enhance safety measures in cars.

Many of these rules were drawn up when the industry was relatively healthy, and could have easily been implemented with 'normal' profits. But Garel Rhys, emeritus professor of motor industry economics at Cardiff University, notes that auto makers 'have to survive [in order] to make these environmentally friendly products, and current rules will force them to do it too quickly for their weakening balance sheets.'

It's hard to say which European company is in the best shape. Mass car manufacturers like Renault, Peugeot and Italy's Fiat have benefited from a boost to sales of their cheaper cars from government incentives. But these companies don't have the huge cash reserves of companies like Mercedes, BMW and VW.

No doubt the calls for government bailouts will only grow louder as the crisis intensifies. Roland Berger Strategy's Landmann acknowledges that ignoring these calls will be a difficult political decision, particularly in Germany, which goes to the polls this fall. He nevertheless urges Berlin, even in this election year, to turn down GM Europe/Opel's request.

'Government should make sure they are adhering to strict criteria when asked to subsidize the Opels and Saabs of this world,' Mr. Landmann said. 'They must show a sustainable business plan. Can it be implemented? Why aren't private-sector investors interested? If it was salvageable, investors would be there. And most importantly, if Opel gets it, who is next?'

Europe's auto makers are desperate to ride out the recession. But it looks like casualties are unavoidable.

Το παρακατω αρθρο (στα αγγλικα δυστυχως) δημοσιευτηκε χθες στην Wall Street Journal Europe....τα πραγματα δεν δειχνουν να πηγαινουν τοσο καλα για την πλειονοτητα των Ευρωπαιων κατασκευαστων...

Survivor: European Auto Edition
Some car makers probably won't outlive the recession.
By NEIL WINTON From today's Wall Street Journal Europe.

Geneva

Some European auto makers may not survive the current economic crisis. When the dust settles after this particularly nasty and prolonged recession, the European car industry will look different -- and smaller, says Ralf Landmann, automotive partner with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Frankfurt.

Randy Jones'In Europe, there will be one national champion in France, one in Italy, one volume manufacturer in Germany [Volkswagen] plus Ford Europe, and two cooperating premium manufacturers -- Mercedes and BMW,' said Mr. Landmann in an interview at this week's Geneva Car Show.

If he's right, that would mean either Peugeot-Citroën or Renault in France for the chop, and goodbye as well to General Motors' Opel, Vauxhall and Swedish brand Saab. It doesn't bode well either for the other Swedish maker, Volvo, whose owner, Ford, has been looking for a buyer. Nor for other marginal players like Indian-owned Jaguar Land Rover, based in Britain. Market leader VW of Germany, now controlled by Porsche, looks safe, as does VW's Skoda brand. VW's loss-making SEAT might be getting nervous. And even Mercedes and BMW have talked on the record about combining much of their research and development and engineering, based on the idea that car buyers are not concerned with commonalties under the hood.

If anyone doubts the depth of the crisis in the European automotive business, pay attention to GM Europe President Carl-Peter Forster's comments at the show Tuesday. He believes that if GM Europe, with its Opel, Vauxhall and Saab subsidiaries, goes under, the resulting cost in jobs across Europe will be upward of 300,000.

Mr. Forster wants a financial bailout, and he wants it now. He has asked German and other European governments for a total of €3.3 billion to tide it over during its liquidity crisis, in return for ceding an equity stake. Governments are discussing it but don't seem eager to hand out the cash. Peugeot-Citroën and Renault of France are already sharing €6 billion in soft loans from their government. Other manufacturers wonder if they qualify for some kind of bailout, too.

The European automotive industry employs 2.2 million people directly and another 10 million in related industries and services. The sector also is the largest private R&D investor in Europe. Automotive manufacturers and suppliers have a combined turnover of around €700 billion, while the retail and repairs sector comprises another 350,000 small and medium-size enterprises with a turnover of €520 billion.

European car sales across the board have dived about 30% so far this year, but even this distressed level camouflages much more actual pain. Sales have often been artificially induced by government incentive schemes in Germany, France and Italy to persuade buyers to part with their 10-year-old clunkers. German buyers can, for the time being, bill their government for up to €2,500 toward the cost of a new or up to one-year-old car. The assumption is that a newer car is also greener. Car manufacturers have also been offering huge discounts to move the metal and keep production lines running.

According to Peter Schmidt, editor of the pan-European fortnightly newsletter Automotive Industry Data, actual production in factories around the world reveals an even more alarming crisis.

'January's global car production is running at less than half of last year's level and is yet another clue that this is certainly no ordinary recession,' Mr. Schmidt said. 'Likewise, today's genuine consumer demand for new cars is running at half of last year's level at best. If that same trend continues through this year's second and third quarter, things will start to look extremely ugly.' The figures mask a disturbing reality.

'Today's true underlying demand for new cars is probably just a fraction of accustomed normal historical levels,' Mr. Schmidt said. 'Certainly there must be few people in the real world worrying about their employment prospects who would want to buy a car now.'

Last weekend, EU leaders pushed aside industry pleas for a pan-European, €40 billion fund for assistance, saying any help should come from national governments. But industry experts say financial aid isn't the only way for governments to give the manufacturers temporary relief. Some want the EU to postpone new rules forcing car makers to produce more fuel-efficient machines by 2015, and to delay new plans to enhance safety measures in cars.

Many of these rules were drawn up when the industry was relatively healthy, and could have easily been implemented with 'normal' profits. But Garel Rhys, emeritus professor of motor industry economics at Cardiff University, notes that auto makers 'have to survive [in order] to make these environmentally friendly products, and current rules will force them to do it too quickly for their weakening balance sheets.'

It's hard to say which European company is in the best shape. Mass car manufacturers like Renault, Peugeot and Italy's Fiat have benefited from a boost to sales of their cheaper cars from government incentives. But these companies don't have the huge cash reserves of companies like Mercedes, BMW and VW.

No doubt the calls for government bailouts will only grow louder as the crisis intensifies. Roland Berger Strategy's Landmann acknowledges that ignoring these calls will be a difficult political decision, particularly in Germany, which goes to the polls this fall. He nevertheless urges Berlin, even in this election year, to turn down GM Europe/Opel's request.

'Government should make sure they are adhering to strict criteria when asked to subsidize the Opels and Saabs of this world,' Mr. Landmann said. 'They must show a sustainable business plan. Can it be implemented? Why aren't private-sector investors interested? If it was salvageable, investors would be there. And most importantly, if Opel gets it, who is next?'

Europe's auto makers are desperate to ride out the recession. But it looks like casualties are unavoidable.

Το παρακατω αρθρο (στα αγγλικα δυστυχως) δημοσιευτηκε χθες στην Wall Street Journal Europe....τα πραγματα δεν δειχνουν να πηγαινουν τοσο καλα για την πλειονοτητα των Ευρωπαιων κατασκευαστων...

Survivor: European Auto Edition
Some car makers probably won't outlive the recession.
By NEIL WINTON From today's Wall Street Journal Europe.

Geneva

Some European auto makers may not survive the current economic crisis. When the dust settles after this particularly nasty and prolonged recession, the European car industry will look different -- and smaller, says Ralf Landmann, automotive partner with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Frankfurt.

Randy Jones'In Europe, there will be one national champion in France, one in Italy, one volume manufacturer in Germany [Volkswagen] plus Ford Europe, and two cooperating premium manufacturers -- Mercedes and BMW,' said Mr. Landmann in an interview at this week's Geneva Car Show.

If he's right, that would mean either Peugeot-Citroën or Renault in France for the chop, and goodbye as well to General Motors' Opel, Vauxhall and Swedish brand Saab. It doesn't bode well either for the other Swedish maker, Volvo, whose owner, Ford, has been looking for a buyer. Nor for other marginal players like Indian-owned Jaguar Land Rover, based in Britain. Market leader VW of Germany, now controlled by Porsche, looks safe, as does VW's Skoda brand. VW's loss-making SEAT might be getting nervous. And even Mercedes and BMW have talked on the record about combining much of their research and development and engineering, based on the idea that car buyers are not concerned with commonalties under the hood.

If anyone doubts the depth of the crisis in the European automotive business, pay attention to GM Europe President Carl-Peter Forster's comments at the show Tuesday. He believes that if GM Europe, with its Opel, Vauxhall and Saab subsidiaries, goes under, the resulting cost in jobs across Europe will be upward of 300,000.

Mr. Forster wants a financial bailout, and he wants it now. He has asked German and other European governments for a total of €3.3 billion to tide it over during its liquidity crisis, in return for ceding an equity stake. Governments are discussing it but don't seem eager to hand out the cash. Peugeot-Citroën and Renault of France are already sharing €6 billion in soft loans from their government. Other manufacturers wonder if they qualify for some kind of bailout, too.

The European automotive industry employs 2.2 million people directly and another 10 million in related industries and services. The sector also is the largest private R&D investor in Europe. Automotive manufacturers and suppliers have a combined turnover of around €700 billion, while the retail and repairs sector comprises another 350,000 small and medium-size enterprises with a turnover of €520 billion.

European car sales across the board have dived about 30% so far this year, but even this distressed level camouflages much more actual pain. Sales have often been artificially induced by government incentive schemes in Germany, France and Italy to persuade buyers to part with their 10-year-old clunkers. German buyers can, for the time being, bill their government for up to €2,500 toward the cost of a new or up to one-year-old car. The assumption is that a newer car is also greener. Car manufacturers have also been offering huge discounts to move the metal and keep production lines running.

According to Peter Schmidt, editor of the pan-European fortnightly newsletter Automotive Industry Data, actual production in factories around the world reveals an even more alarming crisis.

'January's global car production is running at less than half of last year's level and is yet another clue that this is certainly no ordinary recession,' Mr. Schmidt said. 'Likewise, today's genuine consumer demand for new cars is running at half of last year's level at best. If that same trend continues through this year's second and third quarter, things will start to look extremely ugly.' The figures mask a disturbing reality.

'Today's true underlying demand for new cars is probably just a fraction of accustomed normal historical levels,' Mr. Schmidt said. 'Certainly there must be few people in the real world worrying about their employment prospects who would want to buy a car now.'

Last weekend, EU leaders pushed aside industry pleas for a pan-European, €40 billion fund for assistance, saying any help should come from national governments. But industry experts say financial aid isn't the only way for governments to give the manufacturers temporary relief. Some want the EU to postpone new rules forcing car makers to produce more fuel-efficient machines by 2015, and to delay new plans to enhance safety measures in cars.

Many of these rules were drawn up when the industry was relatively healthy, and could have easily been implemented with 'normal' profits. But Garel Rhys, emeritus professor of motor industry economics at Cardiff University, notes that auto makers 'have to survive [in order] to make these environmentally friendly products, and current rules will force them to do it too quickly for their weakening balance sheets.'

It's hard to say which European company is in the best shape. Mass car manufacturers like Renault, Peugeot and Italy's Fiat have benefited from a boost to sales of their cheaper cars from government incentives. But these companies don't have the huge cash reserves of companies like Mercedes, BMW and VW.

No doubt the calls for government bailouts will only grow louder as the crisis intensifies. Roland Berger Strategy's Landmann acknowledges that ignoring these calls will be a difficult political decision, particularly in Germany, which goes to the polls this fall. He nevertheless urges Berlin, even in this election year, to turn down GM Europe/Opel's request.

'Government should make sure they are adhering to strict criteria when asked to subsidize the Opels and Saabs of this world,' Mr. Landmann said. 'They must show a sustainable business plan. Can it be implemented? Why aren't private-sector investors interested? If it was salvageable, investors would be there. And most importantly, if Opel gets it, who is next?'

Europe's auto makers are desperate to ride out the recession. But it looks like casualties are unavoidable.